vitessetony
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 1,055
Club RR Member Number: 114
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May 19, 2020 11:33:57 GMT
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I'm looking at replacing my Mercedes diesel with something more exciting, I am looking at a VXR8 as a potential.
There seems to be conflicting reports on which way it's going to move if at all, however we are on the brink of another recession and so that would suggest car prices will drop.
Now, the questions are,
Will cars like the VXR8 even be effected and if so which way will they go, up or down?
Should I wait maybe 6 months and see what the market does, there is a potential for car prices to rise also I guess?
Anyone with an opinion on the car market in general especially those in the trade please comment.
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PhoenixCapri
West Midlands
Posts: 2,682
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May 19, 2020 11:53:32 GMT
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Sadly for many I fear a down turn is inevitable, and some industries will be massacred to start with (leisure for example). We won't see the true fall out until furlough support ends. But as it might be a bit industry specific I'm wondering if classic prices might not do what they did in 2008/2009 since many people may not need to sell and so will hang on to cars. Sadly there are sure to be those that need to sell to get some money in the door, so guess their will be some cut prices due to that - going to be a tough one for many.
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May 19, 2020 11:58:30 GMT
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I think VXR8 prices have already dropped against a year ago. Not a lot, and there is certainly no panic selling.
I'd buy one.......actually I did, although when prices were higher.
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duncanmartin
Club Retro Rides Member
Out of retro ownership
Posts: 1,320
Club RR Member Number: 70
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May 19, 2020 12:10:12 GMT
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There's a 250 page thread on this topic on Pistonheads. Obviously this means that the actual useful content could be edited to about 4 pages, given the signal to noise ratio, but as far as I can tell from reading bits of it, the answer is "it depends". Who are the people who own/buy VXR8s, and are they going to be put off buying (or need to sell)? I suspect not, I think that younger people with more precarious employment are likely to be the big losers, and I don't think they are the market for VXR8s. Likewise, it might be harder to get credit, but I don't think that's going affect the demand for VXR8s. In general, I don't think we're going to see a crash of classic (or really pricey) car prices, but I think there will be a significant dip in the prices of normal cars.
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May 19, 2020 12:16:05 GMT
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VXR8 Indeed - I stopped counting after a Mk 2 Jag & a Jowett 8
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steveg
Posted a lot
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May 19, 2020 12:32:56 GMT
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There is a red VXR8 advertised locally to me in Andover. I quite fancy a Monaro and they don't seem much cheaper. Not sure if the amount of cars has dropped because people aren't selling or if it's just down to the restrictions in movement we have had until recently. A Monaro is a dream really but stuff I can afford seems to have dried up a bit at the moment.
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May 19, 2020 13:04:01 GMT
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I think time will tell, I was thinking about selling my elan +2 this year simply because I don't really use it, I don't need the cash so I simply haven't even bothered trying (or even getting it out the garage) I guess many will be doing the same at the moment, it will depend if financial necessity floods the market with cars or not as time rolls on. I can't see demand dropping too much most of the demand is from older people who have a bit of spare cash to spend on a hobby.
It might even go the other way, with working from home I have no use for our modern at all (in fact we have given it to the daughters other half to use) , we can do everything we need to in the older cars, even the range rover's fuel consumption looks cheap compared to £250 a month to buy/ lease a modern.
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May 19, 2020 13:11:17 GMT
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Unless you're spending hundreds of thousands on cars as an investment portfolio I really don't think it will make that much difference. If VXR8 values aren't artificially high, then they aren't going to come down that much no matter what the economy does (within reason). Purely my opinion of course.
If you want one, buy one. Life is short.
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Paul Y
Posted a lot
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May 19, 2020 13:12:35 GMT
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Rather telling that Webuyanycar have stopped buying -or had a few weeks ago- and the trade in price for my wife's year old Fiesta STline was £8k (against a purchase price of £22K+) probably tells you all you need to know about the nearly new market. A friend of mine is a buyer for one of the big luxury car outfits - Bentley Lamborgini, Porsche, Ferrari etc - his view is that those that can afford these cars are moving them on as they don't want a depreciating asset on the drive, the challenge is that there are no buyers at the other end for exactly the same reasons. So, to answer your question, sort of. Buy it - enjoy it - worry about resale later or lease it and let somebody else take the uncertainty of future values. Worst comes to the worst you can always rob the engine and box out of it and put it into something interesting! P.
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Last Edit: May 19, 2020 13:13:28 GMT by Paul Y
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May 19, 2020 13:41:16 GMT
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There will be a few sort of parallel things going on as far as I can work out.
Obviously there's the straightforward economic factors as some people loose their jobs, many more have significantly lower incomes due to fewer customers in some sectors etc. More specifically related to the retro/classic/custom/speciality car market, the lack of any events for the foreseeable might make more people question what they have their "other" car for, if they aren't enjoying the social aspect of the scene(s). The huge change to people's lifestyles and the present possibility of the absolute worst that could happen might make some people question their priorities too. Some will obviously be gagging to get back to any car activity whatever form but others may find they don't miss it that much after all.
More project cars are probably going to come onto the market because if you can't get your car finished on months of lockdown, furlough, and no shows or holidays to go to then it might be time to admit defeat?
However I think the cheaper end of the "normal" car market will be ok, because those that still have jobs and need to commute will be avoiding public transport like the plague- literally. So expect Kia Picantos, Toyota Aygos, Smart cars and the likes to be in high demand.
As per usual I could be dead wrong.
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Last Edit: May 19, 2020 13:42:21 GMT by ratchart
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duncanmartin
Club Retro Rides Member
Out of retro ownership
Posts: 1,320
Club RR Member Number: 70
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May 19, 2020 14:53:28 GMT
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Unless you're spending hundreds of thousands on cars as an investment portfolio I really don't think it will make that much difference. If VXR8 values aren't artificially high, then they aren't going to come down that much no matter what the economy does (within reason). Purely my opinion of course. If you want one, buy one. Life is short. I agree with you about the VXR8 stuff, but I think the "Investment portfolio" cars are gonna go up. Governments all over the world will be printing money, so the really rich are going to be looking for assets. Expensive modern cars might have a problem though - people questioning why they are paying lots per month on a Bentley when they barely use it (or if they think their income might not be so great). Too many about to ride an "asset" bubble, and still depreciating. All just speculation though. The market is a strange place right now though as no-one has any real idea about what it will look like in 6 months. I'm contemplating selling my Zoe (was always on the cards come September), but no idea what a realistic value is, so sitting on my hands for now.
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May 19, 2020 14:59:42 GMT
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Difficult one, many "investors" in the higher end are unlikely to need to sell due to any downturn, and likely buyers will not necessarily be buying low for a quick turnaround either.
Reduced mileages and low fuel prices make late classics such as the VXR8 a more practical proposition than otherwise might have been the case.
Think personal circumstances and folk looking to move assets quickly will dictate prices more than market sentiment so if there is an individual vehicle below the price you expect to pay potentially move on it quickly.
Think mid term there will be another scrappage scheme cull imminently as one of the stimulus measures in a bid to reinvigorate new car sales.
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2014 - Audi A6 Avant 3.0Tdi Quattro 1958 - Chevrolet Apache Panel Truck 1959 - Plymouth Custom Suburban 1952 - Chevrolet 2dr Hardtop 1985 - Ford Econoline E350 Quadravan 2009 - Ovlov V70 2.5T 1970 - Cortina Mk2 Estate 2007 - Fiat Ducato LWB 120Multijet 2014 - Honda Civic 2.2 CTDi ES
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May 19, 2020 15:06:43 GMT
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Its a tough one to call, but I think the very top end cars will be largely unaffected, as said they will be seen as investments, so for now I can imagine many of them will stay where they are. Low end cars may drop in value for a time, but if/when things pick up again, expect the values to go back up as the quantity left falls. Having said that predicting the future isn't going to be easy.
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May 19, 2020 15:35:42 GMT
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In my opinion the 'classics' are going to keep on climbing, but its the modern stuff to watch out for..
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vitessetony
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 1,055
Club RR Member Number: 114
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May 19, 2020 16:22:32 GMT
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duncanmartin, I'm in a similar position with our Zoe albeit ours is an early battery lease model. I thought I'd ask Renault if they would buy it, I had a call today from Renault Manchester, he said "we are not buying any cars for stock for the foreseeable future until we see where the market sits" Didn't even try and low ball me, they just aren't buying anything at all.....
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duncanmartin
Club Retro Rides Member
Out of retro ownership
Posts: 1,320
Club RR Member Number: 70
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May 19, 2020 16:53:06 GMT
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duncanmartin, I'm in a similar position with our Zoe albeit ours is an early battery lease model. I thought I'd ask Renault if they would buy it, I had a call today from Renault Manchester, he said "we are not buying any cars for stock for the foreseeable future until we see where the market sits" Didn't even try and low ball me, they just aren't buying anything at all..... Yeah, mine's a battery owned ZE40, so it should be a lot easier to move on if I wanted to. I got a couple of trade in prices in Feb, but I've not tested the market in the last month or 2. I might ping the guy I bought it from and see whether they are looking for stock. I assume selling the Merc Diesel might be a bit easier.
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vitessetony
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 1,055
Club RR Member Number: 114
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May 19, 2020 16:56:34 GMT
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duncanmartin, I'm in a similar position with our Zoe albeit ours is an early battery lease model. I thought I'd ask Renault if they would buy it, I had a call today from Renault Manchester, he said "we are not buying any cars for stock for the foreseeable future until we see where the market sits" Didn't even try and low ball me, they just aren't buying anything at all..... Yeah, mine's a battery owned ZE40, so it should be a lot easier to move on if I wanted to. I got a couple of trade in prices in Feb, but I've not tested the market in the last month or 2. I might ping the guy I bought it from and see whether they are looking for stock. I assume selling the Merc Diesel might be a bit easier. Selling the Merc will be a doddle compared to the Zoe but it has to go as Mrs VT has just ordered an e2008 through work to replace it.
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May 19, 2020 17:29:21 GMT
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I suspect it'll be the nearly new used car market that sees the biggest hit. When the repayment holidays roll off and people find out they can't afford the finance or leasing anymore, there will be a glut of BMW 1/2 series and Mercedes C class coupes handed back or repo'd.
Also, I agree with kevins..what this has proved is you don't have to commute to an office every day so actually more people may just ditch a modern and drive something more interesting
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May 19, 2020 17:30:25 GMT
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I don't want to depress people but there are some given parameters when it comes to the car sales market, both new and used. I work at a site of an old USAF base and there are THOUSANDS of new cars stored there unsold. Now whilst most on here are not looking at brand new cars the prices will reflect the massive over supply when they do come into the system. So dealers will be incentivized to sell but watching the news will tell us that many thousands of people will lose their jobs and the UK will be part of a global recession. The UK government are currently paying the wages (80% thereof) of nearly two thirds of the working population. Those of us lucky enough to work will be part of paying off the £299 billion the government are currently borrowing to try and deal with this pandemic. This means the possibility of people keeping older cars for longer. On the flip side if people are finding things financially tough running an expensive to run and own car will be less desirable, never mind all those three year PCP deals people are on! So the market for used powerful,thirsty, expensive to own/run cars will shrink and a likely better supply of these for sale will reduce prices, smaller cheaper to own and run cars are likely to become more popular and thus rise in price or at least depreciate less. Interesting times to come methinks.
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Last Edit: May 19, 2020 17:32:39 GMT by duggers
Needs a bigger hammer mate.......
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stealthstylz
Club Retro Rides Member
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May 19, 2020 20:48:09 GMT
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Judging by the stories I'm hearing from customers it's a buyers market - helping people struggling for cash/fleecing desperate people struggling for cash depending on your viewpoint.
I think this whole credit charade is gonna come tumbling down once the furlough/payment holidays are gone. There are far too many people who don't actually own anything even though they've got everything who are losing/about to lose their income.
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